← Store Championship @ Hobby Lords Lower Hutt
Fire EruptingTier 1
at Store Championship @ Hobby Lords Lower Hutt
decks
2
(5.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
4-4-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.4%
avg ELO -1.7 per match
expected value
51.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1238
· median 1238
· range 1221–1255
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
957
Q1 1124
Q3 1361
1599
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 17.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.0% | -2.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.5 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.5 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
